What are prediction markets? A beginner's guide to Kalshi and Polymarket

If you've ever watched a major election, a big sports event, or a Federal Reserve announcement and thought "I wonder what the actual probability of that happening is," prediction markets have an answer for you. Not a pundit's opinion. Not a poll with a margin of error. An actual market price, set by people putting real money on the line.

Prediction markets are one of the most interesting corners of finance that most people have never heard of. They're also increasingly accessible, thanks to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. And when you connect them to IFTTT, you can track the markets that matter to you without having to refresh a page every five minutes.

What are prediction markets?

A prediction market is a platform where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability that something will happen.

If a contract for "will X happen" is trading at 70 cents, the market is saying there's roughly a 70% chance it happens. If you think the probability is higher than that, you buy. If you think it's lower, you sell. When the event resolves, the winning side gets paid out and the losing side doesn't.

Unlike traditional betting, prediction markets are designed to aggregate information efficiently. The people trading them tend to be informed, which means the prices tend to be more accurate than polls, forecasts, or media commentary. They've been used to predict election outcomes, economic indicators, geopolitical events, and more.

What is Kalshi?

Kalshi is the first federally regulated prediction market in the United States. It's regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which puts it in a different legal category from offshore betting sites or unregulated crypto platforms. You're trading event contracts on a regulated exchange, not placing bets on a sportsbook.

Kalshi covers a wide range of markets including economics (will the Fed raise rates, will inflation hit a certain level), politics (election outcomes, legislative events), weather, finance, and more. Markets are created around specific yes/no questions with clear resolution criteria, so there's no ambiguity about how a contract settles.

Because it's regulated, Kalshi is available to US residents and operates with the same legal standing as a financial exchange. You fund your account, buy and sell contracts, and withdraw your balance. It's designed to feel more like a trading platform than a gambling site, which is intentional.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market in the world. Unlike Kalshi, it operates on blockchain infrastructure using USDC as its currency, and it's not available to US residents due to regulatory restrictions. For international users, it's one of the most liquid and widely used prediction markets available.

Polymarket covers an enormous range of topics including elections, geopolitics, crypto prices, sports, science, and current events. Markets are created by users and the platform, and prices move in real time based on trading activity. Because it's decentralized, Polymarket doesn't require an account in the traditional sense. You connect a crypto wallet and start trading.

The platform gained significant mainstream attention during the 2024 US presidential election, when its prices diverged meaningfully from polling averages and turned out to be more accurate. That visibility brought a wave of new users who had never thought about prediction markets before.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket: what's the difference?

Both platforms let you trade on real-world event outcomes, but they serve different users in different ways. Here's how they compare:

Bottom line: Use Kalshi if you're a US resident who wants a regulated, USD-based platform. Use Polymarket if you're outside the US or comfortable with crypto and want access to a wider range of markets with higher liquidity.

How IFTTT works with Kalshi

Kalshi generates two types of events worth tracking: price movements and market resolutions. IFTTT connects to both and lets you route them wherever they're most useful without having to watch the platform manually.

When a Kalshi market price crosses a threshold you set, IFTTT can send you a notification, an email, or an SMS immediately. It can also post the alert to Slack or Discord, log it to Google Sheets, or fire a webhook for custom downstream workflows. For traders who want to act on price movements quickly, these alerts mean you're informed the moment the market moves past your level, not whenever you happen to check.

When a market resolves, the same range of options applies. Get an email or SMS when the outcome is confirmed. Post the result to Slack or Discord automatically. Log every resolution to Google Sheets for a running record of your prediction history. Send the result to webhooks to trigger any downstream action in your stack.

For more advanced setups, Kalshi connects to Alpaca, meaning you can place or liquidate Alpaca trading positions automatically when a Kalshi market crosses a threshold or resolves. That's a genuinely powerful combination for anyone running systematic strategies across prediction and equity markets.

Six popular Kalshi automations

Explore Kalshi integrations

Some of the most useful Kalshi automations route market alerts and resolutions to the tools you already check, so you stay informed without having to monitor the platform directly.

Slack to Kalshi

Post Kalshi price alerts and market resolutions directly to a Slack channel. Useful for teams tracking prediction markets together or traders who want market updates surfaced in their existing workspace.

• - Post Kalshi market price alerts to a Slack channel automatically
• - Notify your Slack channel the moment a Kalshi market resolves
• - Share Kalshi price threshold crossings with your team in real time

Set up Slack → Kalshi

Email to Kalshi

Get email notifications for the Kalshi markets that matter to you. A simple setup for anyone who wants market updates delivered to their inbox without checking the platform manually.

• - Get an email when a Kalshi market price crosses your threshold
• - Receive an email the moment a Kalshi market resolves
• - Set up a daily email digest of your tracked Kalshi markets

Set up Email → Kalshi

Notifications to Kalshi

Get instant push notifications for Kalshi price movements and market outcomes. The fastest way to stay on top of markets you're tracking without being tied to a screen.

• - Get a notification the moment a Kalshi price crosses your threshold
• - Receive an instant alert when a Kalshi market resolves
• - Set up notifications for multiple markets and manage them from one place

Set up Notifications → Kalshi

How IFTTT works with Polymarket

Polymarket covers a huge range of markets and moves fast. IFTTT connects to Polymarket so you can track the outcomes and price levels that matter to you without staying glued to the platform.

When a Polymarket outcome price crosses a threshold, IFTTT can notify you, send a Discord message, alert Slack, fire a webhook, or send the update to Telegram. When a market resolves, IFTTT can log it to Google Sheets, post the result to Discord or Slack, send an email, or fire a webhook automatically.

For research and tracking purposes, IFTTT can log Polymarket market prices to Google Sheets on a schedule, send a market summary to Telegram, or push market updates to Google Chat. If you want to stay on top of specific markets without checking manually, you can set up a notification in the IFTTT widget or have Google Calendar trigger a Polymarket market fetch at the start of a scheduled event.

For crypto-connected workflows, Polymarket integrates with Coinbase on IFTTT, so you can email yourself Polymarket prices when Coinbase records a buy or sell, connecting your prediction market activity to your crypto trading in a single automated flow.

Six popular Polymarket automations

A note on responsible use

Prediction markets are genuinely useful tools for tracking probabilities and staying informed on events that matter to you. They're also financial instruments where real money changes hands based on uncertain outcomes. Before trading on either platform, it's worth being clear with yourself about why you're there.

If you're using them to stay informed, track probabilities, or research how markets price real-world events, that's exactly what they're designed for. If you're trading with money you can't afford to lose, chasing losses, or treating them as a reliable income source, that's worth pausing on.

Trade within your means, understand the fee structures, and read the resolution criteria before you buy a contract. Both platforms publish their rules clearly and that information is worth reading before you put money in.

Set your alerts and step back

The most useful thing about connecting prediction markets to IFTTT isn't the automation itself. It's that you stop having to monitor anything. You pick the markets you care about, set the thresholds that matter to you, and let IFTTT tell you when something worth knowing happens. Everything else runs without you.

Whether you're tracking election probabilities, economic indicators, or crypto outcomes, the markets are moving whether you're watching or not. IFTTT makes sure you don't miss the moments that matter.

Ready to connect? Get started on IFTTT today, no code required.

Frequently asked questions

Is Kalshi gambling?

Kalshi is not legally classified as gambling. It's a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC, which puts it in the same regulatory category as futures markets rather than sports betting or casino gambling. You're trading event contracts on a regulated financial exchange. That said, like any financial instrument, there is real money at risk and the outcomes are uncertain. Whether you treat it as a research tool, a hedging instrument, or a speculative trade is up to you.

Is Kalshi legit?

Yes. Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange authorized by the CFTC. It launched in 2021 after a lengthy regulatory approval process and operates with the same legal standing as other US commodity exchanges. Your funds are held separately from company assets, and the platform is subject to ongoing regulatory oversight.

Is Polymarket legal in the US?

Polymarket is not available to US residents due to regulatory restrictions. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC and agreed to block US users from the platform. If you're based in the US and want to trade on prediction markets legally, Kalshi is the regulated alternative. Polymarket is widely used internationally and is legal in many other countries.

How does Kalshi make money?

Kalshi makes money through trading fees charged on each transaction. When you buy or sell a contract, Kalshi takes a small percentage of the trade. There are no subscription fees or account minimums. The fee structure is designed to be transparent and is published on Kalshi's website.

Is Polymarket legit?

Polymarket is one of the most established and liquid decentralized prediction markets in the world. It has been operating since 2020, processed billions of dollars in trading volume, and gained significant mainstream credibility during the 2024 US election cycle. As a decentralized platform it operates differently from regulated exchanges like Kalshi, but it has a strong track record and high liquidity across its markets.